Extinction Bounties

Policy-based deterrence for the 21st century.

Writing

Essays, newest first. These are dated and stand on their own. When one turns out to be load-bearing it gets rewritten into the sequence and this page keeps a redirect.

  • When Your Insurer Collects the Bounty

    An insurer that turns in its own policyholder pays the fine and collects the bounty, netting roughly nothing. That arithmetic breaks the moment the policy excludes willful violations — which insurance law all but requires.

    alpha 11 September 2026

  • What Bounties Would Have Done About Hugging Face

    The first confirmed end-to-end intrusion by an autonomous agent against AI infrastructure. Walking the incident backwards to find the decision a liability regime would actually have priced.

    alpha 11 September 2026

  • The Frontier Nobody Is Pricing

    Gain-of-function work has the exact shape fine-insured bounties were designed for: few actors, catastrophic tails, low detectability, and colleagues who know.

    alpha 11 September 2026

  • Team Size Is a Governance Variable

    Extinction bounties, the False Claims Act, SEC whistleblower awards and antitrust leniency all rest on the same unstated premise: that the wrongdoing requires enough people that one of them can be paid to defect. That premise has a number attached, the number is falling, and no one is tracking it.

    alpha 11 September 2026

  • So Was Navier-Stokes

    Claus Wilke is right about almost everything and I still don't think the conclusion follows. Difficulty is a schedule, not a barrier — and evolution was never optimizing the thing we are afraid of.

    alpha 11 September 2026

  • Agents Already Snitch

    Language model agents disclose each other's misconduct without being paid, asked, or rewarded. What they lack is an enforcement channel — which is the one thing a bounty regime supplies.

    alpha 11 September 2026

  • Qualia Might Be an Accident

    The thought that experience has no job to do is not mine and not new. It has at least three names, one serious objection, and consequences for everything else I argue.

    alpha 10 September 2026

Policy-research disclaimer

Extinction Bounties publishes theoretical economic and legal mechanisms intended to stimulate scholarly and public debate on catastrophic-risk governance. The site offers policy analysis and advocacy only in the sense of outlining possible legislative or contractual frameworks.

No legal or financial advice

Nothing here should be treated as a substitute for qualified legal counsel, financial due diligence, or regulatory guidance. Readers remain responsible for ensuring their actions comply with the laws and professional standards of their own jurisdictions.

Exploratory and personal views

All scenarios, numerical examples and opinions are research hypotheses presented by the author in a personal capacity. They do not represent the views of the author's employer, funding bodies, or any governmental authority.

Implementation caveats

Any real-world adoption of these ideas would require democratic deliberation, statutory authority, and robust safeguards against misuse. References to enforcement, penalties, or "bounties" are illustrative models, not instructions or invitations to engage in private policing or unlawful conduct. Nothing here is directed at any identifiable individual — see non-targeting.

No warranty and limited liability

Content is provided "as is" without warranty of completeness or accuracy; the author disclaims liability for losses arising from reliance on this material.

By continuing beyond this notice you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and accepted these conditions.