Extinction Bounties

Policy-based deterrence for the 21st century.

Policy-research disclaimer

Extinction Bounties publishes theoretical economic and legal mechanisms intended to stimulate scholarly and public debate on catastrophic-risk governance. The site offers policy analysis and advocacy only in the sense of outlining possible legislative or contractual frameworks.

No legal or financial advice

Nothing here should be treated as a substitute for qualified legal counsel, financial due diligence, or regulatory guidance. Readers remain responsible for ensuring their actions comply with the laws and professional standards of their own jurisdictions.

Exploratory and personal views

All scenarios, numerical examples and opinions are research hypotheses presented by the author in a personal capacity. They do not represent the views of the author's employer, funding bodies, or any governmental authority.

Implementation caveats

Any real-world adoption of these ideas would require democratic deliberation, statutory authority, and robust safeguards against misuse. References to enforcement, penalties, or "bounties" are illustrative models, not instructions or invitations to engage in private policing or unlawful conduct. Nothing here is an accusation against, or a call to act against, any person or organisation; see non-targeting.

No warranty and limited liability

Content is provided "as is" without warranty of completeness or accuracy; the author disclaims liability for losses arising from reliance on this material.

By continuing beyond this notice you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and accepted these conditions.

Insurance

  • 08. The Insurer

    The insurance market is the part that does the actual deterring, and it does it before anyone is ever charged.

    alpha revised 2026-10-20

  • But Who Would Insure a Criminal?

    The objection is not that insurers would refuse. It is that in most jurisdictions they are forbidden. The answer is that a bounty is not a punishment for intentional harm, and the industry already has the machinery for exactly this.

    alpha revised 2026-09-13

  • Is the Quiet World Stable?

    This site's central line is that shifting the Nash equilibrium is easier than solving alignment. It describes the equilibrium it wants to leave in detail and the one it would arrive at almost not at all. Four players, checked one at a time for a profitable unilateral deviation.

    alpha revised 2026-10-20

  • Should X-Risk Liability Insurance Be Voluntary or Mandatory?

    Mandatory coverage fixes the judgment-proof problem and quietly hands private insurers the power to decide who may do frontier research. I think there is a third option, and I no longer think this fork is a coin flip.

    alpha revised 2026-09-13