Extinction Bounties

Policy-based deterrence for the 21st century.

Notes

Individual questions that hang off the main argument without belonging inside it. Each is labelled by how finished it is — stub means little more than a title and an outline, alpha means drafted but unsettled, evergreen means I am happy with it and revise it in place.

  • But Who Would Insure a Criminal?

    The objection is not that insurers would refuse. It is that in most jurisdictions they are forbidden. The answer is that a bounty is not a punishment for intentional harm, and the industry already has the machinery for exactly this.

    alpha revised 2026-09-11

  • Overlapping Jurisdictions Are a Feature

    What this proposal asks for is not a world government. It is one more overlapping legal order in a life that already contains several — and the rigorous case for that is about credible commitment, not about liberty.

    alpha revised 2026-09-11

  • Should X-Risk Liability Insurance Be Voluntary or Mandatory?

    Mandatory coverage fixes the judgment-proof problem and quietly hands private insurers the power to decide who may do frontier research. I think there is a third option, and I no longer think this fork is a coin flip.

    alpha revised 2026-09-11

  • The Chilling Effect Is the Product

    Everywhere else on this site the chilling effect is scored as a cost. It is worth one page arguing the opposite: it is the only output that matters, and the steady state it aims at is a world where nothing happens.

    alpha revised 2026-09-11

  • Twenty Years of Trying to Falsify This

    A map of the serious attempts to break the AI-risk argument, what happened to each, and whether the pattern of survival is evidence of a good theory or of an unfalsifiable one.

    alpha revised 2026-09-10

  • Why I Don't Take Negative Utilitarianism Seriously

    The empty universe is negative utilitarianism's global optimum and my worst case. That is not a disagreement about weights — it is a disagreement about the sign of the term.

    alpha revised 2026-09-10

Policy-research disclaimer

Extinction Bounties publishes theoretical economic and legal mechanisms intended to stimulate scholarly and public debate on catastrophic-risk governance. The site offers policy analysis and advocacy only in the sense of outlining possible legislative or contractual frameworks.

No legal or financial advice

Nothing here should be treated as a substitute for qualified legal counsel, financial due diligence, or regulatory guidance. Readers remain responsible for ensuring their actions comply with the laws and professional standards of their own jurisdictions.

Exploratory and personal views

All scenarios, numerical examples and opinions are research hypotheses presented by the author in a personal capacity. They do not represent the views of the author's employer, funding bodies, or any governmental authority.

Implementation caveats

Any real-world adoption of these ideas would require democratic deliberation, statutory authority, and robust safeguards against misuse. References to enforcement, penalties, or "bounties" are illustrative models, not instructions or invitations to engage in private policing or unlawful conduct. Nothing here is directed at any identifiable individual — see non-targeting.

No warranty and limited liability

Content is provided "as is" without warranty of completeness or accuracy; the author disclaims liability for losses arising from reliance on this material.

By continuing beyond this notice you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and accepted these conditions.