Policy-research disclaimer
Extinction Bounties publishes theoretical economic and legal mechanisms
intended to stimulate scholarly and public debate on catastrophic-risk
governance. The site offers policy analysis and advocacy only in the sense of
outlining possible legislative or contractual frameworks.
No legal or financial advice
Nothing here should be treated as a substitute for qualified legal counsel,
financial due diligence, or regulatory guidance. Readers remain responsible
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their own jurisdictions.
Exploratory and personal views
All scenarios, numerical examples and opinions are research hypotheses
presented by the author in a personal capacity. They do not represent the
views of the author's employer, funding bodies, or any governmental
authority.
Implementation caveats
Any real-world adoption of these ideas would require democratic
deliberation, statutory authority, and robust safeguards against misuse.
References to enforcement, penalties, or "bounties" are illustrative models,
not instructions or invitations to engage in private policing or unlawful
conduct. Nothing here is an accusation against, or a call to act against, any
person or organisation; see
non-targeting.
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Content is provided "as is" without warranty of completeness or accuracy;
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A thousand-dollar littering fine, a fifty-dollar camera, and the small market that grows up around them.
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Hanson's fine-insured bounties in general form, and the conspiracy arithmetic that makes silence expensive.
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The insurance market is the part that does the actual deterring, and it does it before anyone is ever charged.
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The target is not punishment and not even prevention of any particular project. It is to make the marginal researcher take a different job.
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A mechanism that stops at a border relocates the risk instead of reducing it. What adoption would actually have to look like, and what it would still fail to reach.
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How this proposal stacks up against the other things people suggest, including on the axes where it loses badly.
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The strongest objections to the mechanism, collected in one place, stated at full strength, and answered only where I can answer them.
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What a serious first version looks like, starting somewhere that is not AI at all.
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